Wed, 1 April 2020
316: Michael Ainslie, “A Nose For Trouble: Sotheby’s, Lehman Brothers, and My Life of Redefining Adversity”
Can we talk about something else? Jason Hartman invites Michael Ainslie to the show to discuss his book, A Nose For Trouble. As well, Michael shares his business tactics helping to grow Sotheby’s in his time with the company. In his stories as Director of Lehman Brothers, Michael talks about SATURDAY MORNING, the weekend that changed Wall Street forever, and some hypotheticals had things gone differently in 2008. And finally, Michael shares a brief story about the beginning of The Posse Foundation.
[3:00] Ten (actually 21) Commandments of Successful Investing, Amendment: Commandment number 22?
[7:00] Michael Ainslie
[9:15] Sotheby’s growth using “good, basic business tactics”
[13:18] The art market and purchasing of major works has become a way for new wealth to distinguish themselves
[13:40] The Sotheby’s scandal with Christie’s Auction Company
[16:00] Sotheby’s real estate, “white elephants”
[20:00] SATURDAY MORNING, Geithner said, “you have two hours to save Lehman,” the weekend that changed Wall Street forever
[24:08] If there were no bailouts, what would that have looked like?
[33:10] The Posse Foundation story
Fri, 27 March 2020
Hoax or not, we are facing a recession. Jason Hartman discusses the suburban differences between China and the U.S. We should all expect to see Stimulus Maximus. How much debt can we handle before things don’t work out?
Our guest today is Venture Alliance Member Mike Zlotnik who is preparing for the good, bad and ugly.
[3:00] Hoax or not, we are facing a recession
[10:00] The U.S. is unlike China, think suburbia
[11:50] Stimulus Maximus
[14:00] How much debt is too much debt? Nobody knows
[19:30] How is the market responding to the Coronavirus right now?
[20:30] I cannot predict the future, just prepare for the good, bad, and the ugly
[29:15] Buying limited partner (LP) shares at a big discount
[31:30] A migration away from the dense areas of residence
Fri, 20 March 2020
In today’s episode, Jason is joined from across the world with Shenzhen, China local, Gary Halmbacher to discuss Black Swan Event Coronavirus. Gary shares his experiences with self-quarantining, and local changes just north of Hong Kong.
In the second segment, Jason is joined by Sarasota, Florida realtor, Jeff Twigg. Jason and Jeff discuss aspects of Dan Amerman’s workshop, including ALM. The two also discuss the unanticipated predictions made by Dan Amerman.
[3:05] Guest Gary, from Shenzhen, China explains being self-quarantined
[9:40] Guest Jeff Twigg
[13:11] Discussion on Dan Amerman workshop, and some of his surprising predictions
[16:45] The Roth IRA might go away?
[22:35] Means-testing for Social Security
[24:00] ALM Asset Liability Management Strategy
Direct download: AMA_311__ALM_ASSET_LIABILITY_MANAGEMENT_PROFITS_WITH_JEFF_TWIGG.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT
Mon, 16 March 2020
Jason Hartman speaks with returning guest and author of the book, “Heads I Win Tails You Lose,” Patrick Donohoe. The conversation touches on topics of an ever changing world culture that continues to reshape how we approach wealth, the freedom to do, and in what we find meaning. Despite some of the chaos and cultural decay, the 2020’s are going to bring some excitement to the world.
[20:40] It’s not freedom from having to do something, it’s freedom to do something.
[22:07] The order of magnitude: an interesting time in history where we are going to see massive change.
[24:00] The rising 3 billion, that aren’t online yet: If you think that society has benefited from sharing knowledge, you’re right.
[26:38] There will always be winners and losers
[28:40] The Ritz Carlton Slogan discussion “Systemize the predictable so you can humanize the exceptional.”
[32:27] People are still trying to find meaning in other things.
[33:16] A little bit of struggle is good for the human spirit
Fri, 13 March 2020
Jason Hartman is joined today by mortgage consultant and trainer, Jen Du Plessis. As a real estate investor, it’s great to gain insight on both sides of the mortgage business. Jason and Jen discuss GSE, QM and non-QM loans, as well as the great recession and where the pendulum has moved to now. This leads to a prediction of interest rates dropping even more.
But before that, Jason offers congratulations because rent is on the rise. Listen to some average rent rates across the country and plan accordingly.
[1:50] Investor Congratulations! Rents on the rise
[3:40] Book, “Debt, The First 5,000 Years” by David Graeber
[6:50] Not one person in a thousand can understand our monetary system
[9:00] Landlord vs tenant in NYC
[12:28] According to Yardi Matrix; About 1.5 million housing units were delivered over the last five years, and 3,000 more expected for delivery this year. A housing shortage? Yes!
[17:00] GSE: Government Sponsored Enterprise
[19:00] What’s QM? And what’s non-QM?
[29:16] From 2004, through the great recession, where is the pendulum now?
[30:20] Right now, the average mortgage company makes $457/loan they originate.
[32:30] Are we going to see interest rates go down even more?
Thu, 12 March 2020
Today, Jason Hartman and George Gammon discuss topics such as, The Doom Vortex/feedback loop, oil prices, bonds, and what the world needs to prepare for the Coronavirus fallout. COVID-19 is playing a big role in economic changes and Jason and George break down some of the less obvious concepts of how this plays out. Today’s episode dives deep into understanding the relationships existing in the global market.
[3:05] The big differences between the Coronavirus and the normal Flu are the R Naught Value, and Serious (non-fatal) Complication Rate
[9:25] COVID-19: a tougher, more hardy virus, living outside of the body
[12:00] A supply shock and a demand shock in the U.S.?
[16:05] How the corporate bond markets and the credit markets are affected by the crash in oil, Coronavirus and everything bubble turning into an everything crash
[14:15] The stock market is like buying in cyclical real estate markets
[28:15] When Triple B bonds get downgraded to junk bonds
[34:25] Sooner or later, companies like Tesla or Uber will need to sell equity to generate the cash they need to sustain themselves, especially in a recession
[40:10] During a recession, tax receipts plummet
Fri, 6 March 2020
Jason Hartman speaks with today’s returning guest, Adam, about current news including; another federal rate cut and COVID-19. While it’s hard to escape the COVID-19 discussion right now, it’s easy to plan for your financial future. Jason and Adam discuss the property investment benefits of an ever-increasing work-from-home environment.
Check out two new construction property profiles with a great debt coverage ratio. Also, be the first to see new properties in the Proforma by subscribing to the PropertyCast in the link below.
[1:30] Another rate cut by the not-so federal reserve
[4:40] COVID-19 may fade out by springtime
[7:00] The 100k bread-and-butter home holds a profit until your rent drops more than 20%
[9:00] New construction in Jacksonville
[10:37] Debt coverage ratio = how likely am I to ever get into trouble with this property
[13:00] Property Cast – uploaded Proformas in pdf form, distributed like a podcast
[17:30] A new construction in Palm Coast
[21:00] General health: stop high-fiving. Instead, maybe bow?
[24:45] The British government is telling people to avoid human contact for twelve weeks
Fri, 28 February 2020
Jason Hartman and Investment Counselor Adam take a moment today to discuss the hot topic of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Adam, being a big proponent of MMT, plays a clip from a recent episode of The MMT Podcast and discusses what MMT is, how we can use it in our observation of the economy, and what it can mean for our investing. After they finish up their MMT talk, the two profile a property that's available in the Atlanta, GA market.
[3:49] How money becomes money
[8:03] Why Adam and Jason think cryptocurrencies not backed by the government will never thrive
[14:25] What we actually need to worry about when we have a tax cut or increase in government spending
[17:37] Shrinking deficits lead to pullbacks and federal surpluses lead to recessions
[25:40] Property profile in Atlanta
Fri, 21 February 2020
Jason Hartman talks with George Gammon, real estate investor, entrepreneur, investor and TV producer, about what's happening in the repo market and how that impacts the overall economy moving forward. The two address misconceptions about several aspects of investing and whether you should be happy or dismayed about certain aspects of the new Trump tax plan.
[5:05] What is the repo market and why does it matter in the macroeconomic world?
[10:44] Money market funds are big players in the repo market
[13:20] The only "cheap" investment in today's economy is a 30 year fixed rate mortgage
[17:19] The new tax law has changed the way inflation is dealt with, and George doesn't think it'll be good long term
Fri, 14 February 2020
Jason Hartman’s investment counselor, Adam Schroeder, talks with one the network’s lenders to discuss what mortgage rates are in today’s market. The two discuss current events and the impact that those events might have on available rates with the hypothetical purchase price of $100,000.
Fri, 7 February 2020
Jason Hartman and economist Thomas look back on the 2010s to see what the biggest stories were for investors. From the War on Terror to Obamacare to the aftermath of the Great Recession, it was a decade fraught with ups and downs that provided opportunities for investors to make good money.
[4:30] The 10th biggest story of the decade: the War on Terror explodes the deficit
[7:37] Why European debt issues will come to the fore in 2022
[11:54] The idea of Purchasing Power Parity and what it says about China's economy vs the US
[15:59] As much as Jason doesn't like Obamacare, it makes the list of Top Stories of the 2010s
[26:09] What Jason learned years ago during his day as a lobbyist
[28:26] Thomas is seeing at least a 15% drop in the market coming when the Fed decides to let risk enter the market again
Fri, 31 January 2020
Jason Hartman and economist Thomas look back at some of the happenings of 2019 and then try to envision what's going to be happening in 2020. The primary thing being discussed today is the yield curve. There is constant talk about how a negative yield curve signals recessions, but how long does it have to be negative? Were we inverted too long in 2019? How long before we see the results of the negativity? Jason and Thomas try to answer all these and more.
[4:13] What does the yield curve exploding mean?
[7:17] Why an economist is saying that real estate is less risky than stocks in 2020
[12:36] Hybrid markets had a good 2019 and look like they'll have a good 2020 as well
[13:38] A CNBC clip about the yield curve
[18:14] The Fed has the dual mandate of moderate to low inflation with maximum employment, but they seem to consider financial stability as a 3rd mandate
Fri, 10 January 2020
Jason Hartman and Rabbi Evan Moffic take today to review "the best decade in human history". As 2019 ends and we look forward to 2020, Jason and Evan discuss how the real estate market has transformed since 2010. They also examine the mindset of investors that invested through the Great Recession. Lawrence Yun's expectations for 2020 are also dissected.
[3:16] We are wrapping up the best decade in human history
[6:48] What qualities did the people who invested in real estate through the Great Recession have?
[11:56] Lawrence Yun's 2019 real estate year in review
[15:50] Climate change has caused the Northwest Passage to open up, which is huge for shipping
[18:51] Yun's prediction for the housing market in 2020
[24:26] Will the flow of people to cheaper cost of living states continue in the 20s?
[29:34] The "Collapse of Brands"
Fri, 3 January 2020
Jason Hartman talks with NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of African Energy Chamber, CEO of Centurion Law Group, and author of the new book Billions At Play: The Future Of African Energy And Doing Deals, about the development that's happening inside Africa. Many outside of Africa view the continent with skepticism, but there's a big shift happening, especially in the banking sector (or lack thereof). Jason and NJ discuss some ways that Africa in general is beating first world countries, as well as how a shift toward property rights could go a long, long way toward more prosperity.
[4:35] Africa may not have first world countries, but it has some infrastructure that's better than countries like the US
[8:03] Africa, unlike the United States, is not banking centric
[11:30] Money transfers have gotten so fast and easy that illiterate grandmothers are doing it
[15:10] What NJ views as the bedrock of a strong society