American Monetary Association

April 2023
S	M	T	W	T	F	S

						1
2	3	4	5	6	7	8
9	10	11	12	13	14	15
16	17	18	19	20	21	22
23	24	25	26	27	28	29
30

Sat, 22 April 2023

444: Interest Rate Shock: What It Means For The Housing Market | Eric Basmajian, EPB Macro Research

Jason Hartman welcomes Eric Basmajian, economic analyst and founder of EPB Macro Research. Jason and Eric discuss the rapid decline in real personal income and standard of living, how the rate shock will filter through to the housing market and much more. Eric also talks about the single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going and the four corners of an economy: income, consumption, employment and production.

How far do our dollars actually go and how do we measure the standard of living in real terms? Eric looks for inflection points in long term economic cycles, what he calls secular economic trends, and cyclical trends to better position people for what's on the other side. We now have a rate shock being pushed onto the private sector which will cause a lot of problems as it filters through to the housing sector. So if you have no new home sales, or no new construction, and you have no existing home sales, how is that going to impact employment in the construction sector? How is that going to impact hours worked or hourly earnings in the construction sector? And as higher costs are being pushed onto the private sector, whether it's construction, food or gas prices, we're seeing a rapid decline in real personal income.

Eric Basmajian is an economic analyst providing research on the most critical secular and cyclical economic trends impacting interest rates and asset prices.

Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research

1:12 The Fed and increasing rates - did they panic?

5:26 Are we in for a 30 year housing shortage?

8:36 Homes for sale and permits for new construction

10:53 Higher costs pushed onto the private sector

13:35 As private borrowing rates increase, result will be a huge pullback in spending

15:29 Savings rate has come down substantially

16:45 The Consumer Price Index is understated

18:46 Almost no first time buyer market anymore

21:19 Working age demographics around the world

25:45 Secular economic trend predictions for the next 3-5+ years

26:42 Transfer of wealth from baby boomers to millennials

29:33 The single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going

33:17 The demand curve is set by those demographics

35:27 Immigration can help the demographic curve

37:05 Four corners of the economy: income, consumption, employment and production

38:43 Increasing talk of recession

41:39 We live in a centrally planned economy

44:18 Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/

Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN
Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI
Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/
Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/

Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/

Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund

CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning:
http://JasonHartman.com/Protect

Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals

Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:
https://JasonHartman.com/Ron

Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing:
https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Direct download: AMA_444__CW_1894_CW_YW_-_Housing_Crash_Predictions_with_Eric_Bassmijian_v1.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:58pm EDT

Wed, 5 April 2023

443: How the Current Rental Market Is Affecting Real Estate Investors & Where to Go From Here with Steven Thomas

On this episode, Jason brings on Steven Thomas Founder of ReportsOnHousing.com to give his feedback on the current state of the market and how it will affect things moving forward.

Utilizing his Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences background coupled with his years of experience in the real estate field as a REALTOR®, broker, and executive of a multi-office real estate franchise, Steven Thomas delivers a report that captures the true essence of the current real estate market.

Most economic housing reports analyze and discuss closed sales data, a look at the market through the rearview mirror. Closed sales are a reflection of pending sales that are put together 30 to 60-days prior to the closing. Reports on Housing’s report is a close look at supply and demand, the current listing inventory, current pending sale activity, and the expected market time for homes placed onto the market today. It is more of a current real estate market dashboard than a look in the rearview mirror.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Who is Steven Thomas?

1:00 Why are people hesitating to let go of their properties?

3:20 Have we ever been in a market like we have today?

4:20 How long will the impact of inflation affect the market?

9:30 Will mobile mortgages be implemented soon?

10:40 What will the CPI be like in the coming years?

13:40 How is inflation affecting society today?

16:00 Why is the model for supply and demand broken?

18:03 What markets are seeing inventory catching up to pre-COVID levels?

19:18 What will happen to wages in this high-inflation economy?

20:40 What should we be expecting to happen in the market?